Miami seeks to avoid elimination in elevation. Can the Heat get hot?
Projections
ShotQualityBets Projects: Nuggets 109, Heat 99
Betting Lines:
Denver -8.5 , O/U 210
No official plays from the Projection Model, indication of value on Denver (1.5 points) and Under 210 (2 points).
Analysis
It’s no secret that the Denver Nuggets have simply been the better team thus far in the NBA Finals. ShotQuality’s data has shown the Heat to be shooting a bit cold and for Denver to be scoring almost exactly as expected. That speaks to the complete nature of Denver’s composition, they are not winning this series by shooting the lights out, they are developing valuable shots and hitting them at their expected averages, it is too much for the Heat to keep up with.
Miami is experiencing some poorly timed regression, that, if avoided, would have been one of the greatest NBA 3PT runs of all time. It is hard to shoot as hot at Miami did in the first three rounds of the playoffs. ShotQuality expected them to lose their series to the Bucks, but Miami won 4 of 5 on the back of lights out shooting.
The end to this flamethrower of a run is likely due to the difficulty and skill required to perform above expectation for 20+ games. Miami had an insane streak, just because they couldn’t defeat the most impressive team in the NBA, doesn’t take away from what they did to get here.
That said, if Miami is going to have any chance to stay alive or even cover the spread, they will need to again shoot well. The line in the sand to be aware of appears to be around 45% from deep. If they can stay close to converting half of their opportunities, they have a shot.
The SQ rapid data has shown that this type of heroic performance from Miami is likely going to yield a disagreement from SQ. A win will need to involve luck or extreme shotmaking, so if it starts to appear that Miami is again hitting shots they probably shouldn’t… don’t doubt that it could continue…
Enjoy the game and the following Props!
Top Props
With what is expected to amount to the final game of the NBA season, ShotQualityBets is sharing the full slate of Points Props for tonight’s games!
Staff Favorites: Aaron Gordon O13.5 and Caleb Martin O9.5
Both of these role players will be needed to contribute, Gordon continues to get valuable opportunities in the paint and Martin will need to hit shots for the Heat to stand a chance in Game 5.
Scary Prop of the Night: Jokic U29.5 -114
Betting the Joker to stay under 30 points is no easy proposition, but ShotQuality’s data indicates that this number is inflated and should be a point or two lower. This is common with big name players, and Jokic could score 30+, but at this price there is a profitable edge on playing the Under. Check out the graph below to see Nikola’s recent performances.
ShotQualityLive
Join ShotQuality as we continue to use our data to power new tools! You can follow along with rapid SQ calculations that get updated within the minute of a shot being taken. The ultimate in-game data tool is FREE during the NBA Playoffs. Click here for Game 5 SQ Live!