The Pac-12 Conference
The hub for some of the best basketball recruits in the nation, the Pac-12 conference will once again ooze star-studded teams and veteran-savvy players. This article will preview the conference, including a look at potential roster makeup featuring incoming five-star prospects and notable transfers. The groundbreaking data from ShotQuality’s advanced data will power the Pac-12 conference preview.
Top Transfers
Although the Pac-12 landed plenty of highly-touted transfers, like North Carolina’s Caleb Love and Rutger’s Paul Mulcahy, the conference took a hit with an exodus of some former top recruits. Kel’el Ware, Harrison Ingram, Kerr Kriisa, TJ Bamba, Tre White, and Keyon Menifield are just a few of the former stars, or budding stars, that have departed the Pac-12 since the conclusion of last season.
Below is a list of notable incoming and outgoing players within the Pac-12.
Notable Incoming Transfers
| Old School | New School | Position | PPG |
| Idaho | Washington State | Isaac Jones | 19.4 |
| UNC | Arizona | Caleb Love | 16.7 |
| Georgia | Oregon | Kario Oquendo | 12.7 |
| TTU | Cal | Fardaws Aimaq | 11.1 |
| TTU | Cal | Jaylon Tyson | 10.7 |
| Rutgers | Washington | Paul Mulcahy | 8.3 |
| Kentucky | Washington | Sahvir Wheeler | 7.7 |
| Alabama | Arizona | Jaden Bradley | 6.4 |
Notable Outgoing Transfers
| Old School | New School | Name | PPG |
| Washington State | Villanova | TJ Bamba | 15.8 |
| Stanford | UNC | Harrison Ingram | 10.5 |
| Washington | Arkansas | Keyon Menifield | 10.0 |
| Arizona | WVU | Kerr Kriisa | 9.9 |
| USC | SDSU | Reese Dixon-Waters | 9.8 |
| USC | Louisville | Tre White | 9.0 |
| Oregon | Illinois | Quincy Guerrier | 9.0 |
| Oregon | Indiana | Kel’el Ware | 6.6 |
Top Recruits
The Pac-12 stole the show regarding high school recruiting in 2023. It started when USC added consensus five-star prospect Isaiah Collier, but the chaos reached new heights when Bronny James inked his name with the Trojans. In total, the Trojans signed four players off the ESPN Top 100 for the class of 2023.
Below are all the recruits from that list that signed to play in the Pac-12 next season.
| Rank | School | Name | Pos. |
| 1. | USC | Isaiah Collier | PG |
| 7. | Colorado | Cody Williams | SF |
| 14. | Oregon | Kwame Evans | PF |
| 20. | USC | Bronny James | SG |
| 21. | Oregon | Mookie Cook | SF |
| 22. | Stanford | Andrej Stojakovic | SF |
| 36. | Oregon | Jackson Shelstad | PG |
| 40. | USC | Arrinten Page | C |
| 46. | Stanford | Kanaan Carlyle | SG |
| 55. | Washington | Wesley Yates | SG |
| 67. | UCLA | Sebastian Mack | SG |
| 72. | UCLA | Devin Williams | C |
| 74. | Colorado | Assane Diop | PF |
| 75. | UCLA | Brandon Williams | PF |
| 85. | USC | Brandon Gardner | PF |
Top Contenders
The USC Trojans are favored to win the Pac-12 due to their mix of young talent and experienced front and backcourt players. However, it’s important to recognize the efforts made by Tommy Lloyd and the Arizona Wildcats to improve their roster for the upcoming season. The UCLA Bruins, led by head coach Mick Cronin, should also be taken seriously regardless of them losing their top five scorers.
Over/Under Performers
The Arizona Wildcats and the USC Trojans wear the crown for biggest overachievers in the Pac-12 conference last season. Both schools had six more wins than ShotQualty projected. Using record luck, Arizona and USC were the only teams in the conference with a record luck number better than ten. Neither team won their first-round game in March Madness, with the Wildcats being the bigger disappointment, losing to Princeton in the 15-2 matchup.
On the other hand, the ShotQuality data showed that the California Golden Bears and the Stanford Cardinal did not perform as well as expected. Despite ShotQuality predicting a ten-win season, Cal only managed to secure three victories in the previous season. Similarly, Stanford had an inverse ShotQuality record of 19-14 but finished the 2022-23 campaign with a 14-19 record.
Top Offensive, Defensive, and Net Teams
The UCLA Bruins held the highest mark in offensive and defensive efficiency. UCLA placed tenth in the country in adjusted offensive ShotQuality (1.17 SQ PPP) and second in adjusted defensive ShotQuality (0.89 SQ PPP). Naturally, the net rating favored the Bruins as well (2nd in the nation in AdjSQ), but head coach Mick Cronin faces a challenge with the departure of star player Jaime Jaquez to the NBA.
Arizona Wildcats
Basics
As the upcoming season approaches, the Tommy Lloyd era at Arizona will be entering its third year. The former Gonzaga Bulldogs assistant immediately made an impact in his inaugural season, winning both the Pac-12 regular season title and conference title during the 2021-22 campaign. While the Wildcats were able to add another conference tournament banner last year, Lloyd has yet to achieve success during March Madness. Arizona is just 2-2 in the NCAA tourney, including a first-round exit to Princeton last season.
Coaching Strategies
Arizona’s Wildcats have an impressive offense that is both efficient and speedy. Despite ranking 29th in tempo, they still took high-quality shots and finished 39th in shot selection. Additionally, the team is known for their exceptional three-point shooting skills, ranking 5th last season in catch-and-shoot three-pointers with a 1.11 SQ PPP.
Recent team Performance
Arizona largely outperformed expectations last season. ShotQuality had the Wildcats as a fringe top-25 team despite them earning a #2 seed in March Madness. They were quickly defeated from the field, getting upset by the Ivy’s Princeton.
Team expectations
A birth in the NCAA tournament remains the expectation in Tucson. The Wildcats bring in three major pieces this offseason, with all expected to make a big impact next year. Caleb Love (UNC) and Keshad Johnson (SDSU) will bring their experience from March Madness to this squad.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Basics
Seasoned coach Bobby Hurley will again lead the Arizona State Sun Devils. After a brief three-year hiatus from the March Madness tournament, the Sun Devils made it to the NCAA First Four play-in game last season, marking their third appearance in Dayton during the Bobby Hurley era. ASU nearly dropped 100 on Nevada as they coasted to victory before losing a heartbreaker to TCU in the Round of 64.
Coaching Strategies
Bobby Hurley’s squads are at their best when they efficiently attack the rim. The 2022-23 rendition of the Sun Devils finished 2nd in rim efficiency, 44th in spacing, and 87th in cutting. A deadly mark in rim SQ PPP opened the perimeter game, yet ASU ranked 309th on catch-and-shoot three-pointers.
Recent team Performance
ASU slightly overperformed expectations last season yet finished the year as a projected 20-win team. They also finished the year as the 64th team in SQ net rating. Despite a two-point loss to TCU in the Round of 64, ShotQuality had the Horned Frogs winning that game 88% of the time.
Team expectations
Outside guard Frankie Collins, Arizona State will experience roster turnover in 2023. However, Hurley and co. made some calculated roster adds this offseason, including former Houston Christian sharpshooter Brycen Long and 2020 top prospect Adam Miller. The defensive demands should remain the same, while the expectation is to finish in the top half of the Pac-12 standings.
California Golden Bears
Basics
After posting their lowest win total since 1914, the California Golden Bears parted ways with former bench boss Mark Fox. Enter Mark Madsen, who comes over from the Utah Valley Wolverines. Madsen was a godsend for UVU over the past five seasons, leading the Wolverines to back-to-back 20 wins seasons for the second time since 2004. Who was the last coach to do it? BYU frontman Mark Pope.
Coaching Strategies
The 25-win Wolverines thrived on offense under Mark Madsen last year. They placed 98th in adjusted offensive SQ while ranking in the top 20 in SQ PPP regarding finishing at the rim, shot selection, and rim & three SQ PPP. They don’t create a lot of havoc on defense (299th in defensive turnover rate), but they finished last season 61st in defensive rim & three SQ PPP.
Recent team Performance
Cal was just one of six teams to win three or fewer games last season. However, among those teams, only them and South Carolina State held a SQ win percentage north of 30% at year’s end. The Golden Bears have gone six straight years without a winning record.
Team expectations
Improvement. The Golden Bears need to show improvement. Showing a competitive spirit and improving on a three-win season would be realistic steps in the right direction. Adding former UVU star Fardaws Aimaq will help them take that right step.
Colorado Buffaloes
Basics
Tad Boyle, one of the longest-tenured and respected coaches in college basketball, will return for year 14 in Boulder. Despite missing out on the NCAA tournament for a second straight season, the Buffs remained remarkably consistent. Colorado has won 17-24 games each year under Boyle.
Coaching Strategies
Colorado basketball, or “Boyle ball,” focuses on a strong defense that exhausts opposing teams. The Buffs ranked second-best in the Pac-12 for adjusted defensive ShotQuality and third in the country for defending shots at the rim. On the offensive side, they prioritize a fast-paced transition game, ranking 48th in frequency.
Recent team Performance
Colorado was one of the unluckiest teams in the Pac last season. They went 3-5 in January, but ShotQuality had them going 5-3, including a resume-building win over Oregon. The Buffaloes finished 18-17 last season, their first non-20-win season since 2017-2018.
Team expectations
Winning. Colorado expects to win regardless of whether it’s being one game over .500 or making the Big Dance. Adding former TCU Horned Frogs’ center Eddie Lampkin makes the Buffaloes deadly down low, especially with the return of star forward Tristan da Silva. They might house the best front court in the Pac-12. Not to mention they also inked a top-ten recruit in Cody Williams.
Oregon Ducks
Basics
The Oregon Ducks missed the NCAA tournament for the second straight year, something they had yet to do since Dana Altman’s first two seasons in Eugene in the early 2010s. However, despite underperforming expectations, Oregon remains one of the best and most consistent teams in the conference, winning at least 20 games every year for the last 13 years.
Coaching Strategies
Altman and the Ducks ran a balanced offense in 2023. They finished 216th in half-court frequency while 148th in transition frequency. Oregon’s most frequented shot and play types were cuts, isolation, catch-and-shoot three-pointers, and post-up, but they struggled mightly to execute from the perimeter (318th inefficient three-point shooting).
Recent Team Performance
The Ducks won 23 or more games from 2011-2020. They have yet to reach that mark in the past three seasons. ShotQuality had Oregon winning 20 games last season, one less than their actual win total.
Team expectations
There will be a lot of new faces at Oregon next season. The Ducks lost cornerstone Will Richardson, former white whale Kel’el Ware, sharpshooter Quincy Guerrier, and starter Rivaldo Soares to either graduation or the transfer portal. However, they return leading scorer and big man N’Faly Dante and guard Jermaine Couisnard. Pair that with three incoming players in the top 40 of the ESPN Top 100, and Oregon should be one of the few teams to challenge USC next season.
Oregon State Beavers
Basics
Wayne Tinkle will lead Oregon State for a tenth straight season. Tinkle took the job in 2014, and it took him just two seasons to make the NCAA tournament, something the Beavers had not achieved since the 1989-90 season. However, his name to fame will always be the miracle he and the Beavers pulled off in 2021, making the Elite 8 after only making the tournament because they won the Pac-12 tourney.
Coaching Strategies
Oregon State continues to be a slow-tempo’d team under Wayne Tinkle. They finished 340th in tempo. However, the slow style of play didn’t do them any favors. The Beavers were 330th or worse in offensive turnovers, low frequency attacking the rim, and bad passing/iso. Defensively, they placed in the 130th or better regarding SQ PPP in catch-and-shoot three-pointers and off-the-dribble three-pointers.
Recent team Performance
The Beavers followed up their Elite 8 run with a 3-28. They nearly quadrupled their win total last season, going 11-21. ShotQuality also had them as an 11-win team, finishing the season as the 166th team in SQ’s net rating.
Team expectations
Outside second leading scorer Glenn Taylor Jr., the Beavers will return nearly everyone from last season. Jordan Pope will again don the orange and black after scoring 12.6 points per game in 2023. The expectation is to continue to add to their win total and maybe even crack .500 for the first time in three years.
Stanford Cardinal
Basics
After a fifth straight season of not posting a winning record in conference play, Stanford’s Jerod Haase was on the hot seat following the 2023 season. However, the Cardinal administration has since decided to retain him and his services, as he will enter year seven next season, easily a make-or-break year for the bench boss.
Coaching Strategies
The Cardinal plays a slow offense (301st in tempo). It is at its best when the ball is constantly moving. Stanford hunts the catch-and-shoot three-pointer. They finished the season 48th in frequency and 14th in SQ PPP in that shot type. Defensively, they thrive in the half-court (0.97 SQ PPP) and perimeter defense.
Team Performance
Stanford posted an inverse record from their ShotQuality record (14-19 to 19-14). They were extremely unlucky in the early portion of the season, losing their first five games of conference play. However, ShotQuality had them with a win percentage north of 70% in all those games. Even if Stanford found a way to win at least a few of those games, the rest of their season might of played out differently.
Summarize team expectations
The Cardinal enjoyed a massive offseason. They returned their leading scorer, Spencer Jones, landed former Providence starter Jared Bynum and inked two recruits from the ESPN Top 100. Additionally, all their important rotational players are returning, except for Harrison Ingram. Even though their performance in 2023 was not exceptional, expectations for the team are high at Stanford.
UCLA Bruins
Basics
The UCLA Bruins brought over former Cincinnati frontman Mick Cronin in 2020, and it’s safe to say the results have been fantastic. They have made three Sweet 16s, including a Final Four in 2020. Cronin and the Bruins remain in the top tier of competitors for the Pac-12 title.
Coaching Strategies
The Bruins do two things at an elite level, cause a hefty amount of turnovers and commit few turnovers. They placed 14th and 15th in those metrics, respectively. They shine in transition, evident by a 1.44 SQ PPP (17th in the country) and 11% frequency (58th in the nation). UCLA is equally as dominant in defensive transition.
Recent team Performance
The Bruins won 31 games last season, their most since the TJ Leaf-Lonzo Ball year. ShotQuality had them as the number two team in the net rating, trailing only Purdue. Their extremely balanced attack led to them placing in the top ten in offensive and defensive adjusted ShotQuality.
Team expectations
The Bruins will need to replace all five of their leading scorers. They return former top prospect and starting center Adem Bona, and they signed double-digit scorer and Utah transfer Lazar Stefanovic. Cronin and co. also corraled three recruits from the ESPN Top 100, led by guard Sebastian Mack. The expectations remain the same at UCLA, a March Madness birth at minimum.
USC Trojans
Basics
USC remains a hotspot for top recruits to take their talents. Since Andy Enfield became the head man for the Trojans in 2013, they have landed some of the best high school recruits in the country. They inked Chimezie Metu in 2015, Kevin Porter Jr. in 2018, Onyeka Okongwu and Isaiah Mobley in 2019, Evan Mobley in 2019, and Vincent Iwuchukwu in 2022, but the 2023 class takes the cake. Four ESPN Top 100 recruits will head to Hollywood in 2023, led by #1 overall recruit Isaiah Collier.
Coaching Strategies
USC plays an unconventional style of basketball. They finished 353rd in the rim & three rate metric and in the top 15 in midrange and isolation frequency. However, they ended the year 61st in adjusted offensive ShotQuality thanks to high SQ PPP numbers in those shot types. Defensively, they struggled in the half-court and post-up but could run with anyone, ranking 23rd in defensive transition (1.21 SQ PPP).
Recent team Performance
The Trojans were bounced in the Round of 64 to Michigan State last season. They were also a first-round exit the year prior, losing 68-66 to the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Miami made it to the Elite 8 that year. However, USC was an Elite 8 team in 2021. USC has won double-digit conference games each of the past four seasons.
Team expectations
USC has some of the highest expectations in the Pac-12 and the country. They return leading scorer Boogie Ellis, top wing Kobe Johnson, starting center Joshua Morgan, and former top prospect Vincent Iwuchukwu. That pairs nicely with the best recruiting class in the country. Five-star prospect Isaiah Collier and sharpshooter Bronny James (son of LeBron James) will join Ellis among the most talented backcourts in the nation. Lost in the mix is the signing of two other ESPN Top 100 recruits, power forward Brandon Gardner and center Arrinten Page, to go with the transfer of DJ Rodman.
Utah Utes
Basics
The Utah Utes struggled in Larry Krystkowiak’s final season at Utah, leading to his firing and the eventual hiring of former Utah State bench boss Craig Smith. After a poor first season, Smith saw a six-win increase last year. The former MWC Coach of the Year led the Utes to a ten-win season in conference play for the first time since the 2018-19 campaign.
Coaching Strategies
Utah runs a moderate-tempo offense that relies on their bigs to score in the post. They posted up 7% of the time, the 74th-highest mark in the country. The Utes also like to get to the basket via the cut and screen game, placing in 94th or lower in frequency regarding those play types. Defensively, they finished in the top 100 per SQ PPP in transition and the half-court.
Recent team Performance
Utah won 53% of their games last season, with ShotQuality expecting them at a nearly identical percentage. They started the season great, with wins against Arizona and Washington State, but tailed off badly late. They lost their final six games, with ShotQuality expecting all but two of them to be losses.
Team expectations
The Utes will return star center Branden Carlson next season. They also poached some talent from within the conference by grabbing former Washington starter Cole Bajema and Colorado big Lawson Lovering. Rollie Worster, Ben Carlson, and Gabe Madsen also return for an extra season, making Utah a sneaky pick to make some noise in the Pac-12.
Washington Huskies
Basics
After a few great seasons to start the Mike Hopkins era, the Washington Huskies have stayed stuck in basketball purgatory. They have missed the postseason each of the past four seasons, failed to win more than 17 games since the 2018-19 season, and have had to answer questions about Hopkins’ job security over the past few years. The question remains, can Hopkins get back to his winning ways with the Huskies?
Coaching Strategies
The Washington Huskies finished third last season in efficiency attacking the rim. They were also the #1 cut team in the country with a 1.44 SQ PPP. However, a 294th turnover mark crushed their offensive output, as did placing 352nd in defensive rebounding. Both offensively and defensively, they struggled at the perimeter.
Recent team Performance
Washington has vastly underachieved over the previous three years. They posted a 16-16 record last year. However, ShotQuality had them at 14-18. The Huskies posted a 1.07 adjusted offensive ShotQuality in the previous season, the 92nd-best mark in the country. Conversely, they finished 117th in adjusted defensive ShotQuality (1.00 SQ PPP).
Team expectations
In 2023, Washington expects to compete for a March Madness birth. They returned leading scorer Keion Brooks Jr., inked five immediately impactful transfers, and signed Wesley Yates, the #55 recruit on the ESPN Top 100. The transfer portal was where the Huskies made their money. Moses Wood from Portland (15.3 PPG), Sahvir Wheeler from Kentucky (two-time All-SEC), Anthony Holland from Fresno State (three-year starter), Nate Calmese from Lamar (17.6 PPG), and Paul Mulcahy (4.9 assists per game) will elevate the Huskies to new heights in 2023.
Washington State Cougars
Basics
Long-time head coach Kyle Smith will enter year five in Pullman, Washington. He took over for Ernie Kent in 2019 and has yet to post a losing record with the Cougars. However, he has yet to make the March Madness tournament, a feat Washington State has not achieved since 2007. Smith has yet to make it to the NCAA tournament in 13 years as a head coach, with stops at Columbia, San Francisco, and Washington State.
Coach strategies
The 334th team in tempo, the Cougars play a slow offense that tends to end in isolation sets. They finished the year 27th in iso frequency but 187th in iso SQ PPP (0.91). Additionally, the Cougars also hunt the catch-and-shoot three-pointer. Outside the defensive turnover rate, WSU forced their opponent’s into bad shots. They placed 35th in the defensive rim & three analytics by year’s end.
Recent team Performance
The Cougs went 17-17 last season. However, ShotQuality had them as a major underachiever, with an SQ record of 20-14. They went 4-6 in their first ten conference games despite ShotQuality having them going 6-4 during that stretch. Washington State ended the year 54th in the SQ net rating.
Team expectations
It’s hard to expect much from the 2023-24 version of the Washington State Cougars. They lost their four leading scorers, including standout TJ Bamba, to the transfer portal. However, former Idaho Vandal and All-Big Sky forward Isaac Jones has transferred to Pullman. He scored 19.4 points per game on 63% shooting last year. They will also receive the services of Kansas transfer Joseph Yesufu. The guard starred at Drake before playing a reserve role for the past two years at Kansas.